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Yellow Corn DiscountSchedule
Yellow Soybeans DiscountSchedule
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Bids*
Updated 12/23/14 1:47PM
Soft Red Winter Wheat (Composite) (QBW)
Date
Futures
Basis
Opt
Cash
06/01/15 - 07/31/15
6.165
USD/BU S
-40.00
USD/BU
N
5.765
USD/BU

Yellow Corn (Composite) (QBC)
Date
Futures
Basis
Opt
Cash
12/01/14 - 01/31/15
4.15
USD/BU S
-38.00
USD/BU
H
3.77
USD/BU
03/16/15 - 03/31/15
4.15
USD/BU S
-6.00
USD/BU
H
4.09
USD/BU
04/01/15 - 04/30/15
4.23
USD/BU S
-5.00
USD/BU
K
4.18
USD/BU
05/01/15 - 05/31/15
4.23
USD/BU S
-2.00
USD/BU
K
4.21
USD/BU
Yellow Soybeans (Composite) (QBS)
Date
Futures
Basis
Opt
Cash
12/01/14 - 01/31/15
10.475
USD/BU S
-20.00
USD/BU
F
10.275
USD/BU
03/16/15 - 03/31/15
10.54
USD/BU S
-1.00
USD/BU
H
10.53
USD/BU
04/01/15 - 04/30/15
10.61
USD/BU S
-3.00
USD/BU
K
10.58
USD/BU
05/01/15 - 05/31/15
10.61
USD/BU S
1.00
USD/BU
K
10.62
USD/BU
* Any information is subject to change with out notice. All information posted here is subject to final confirmation by ADM. Please contact this location at the above number to confirm posted Information.
Market Intelligence
ADMIS Daily Grain Commentary
ADMIS AM Market View & Video
12/24/2014 9:02:31 AM
Grains mixed. $ index easier but still near 8-yr high; Treasuries, crude, gold, livestock lower; US stock indexes starting higher. Early closes today.

About ADMIS Daily Grain Commentary
Marketing Partners Advisory
M.P.A. 12/22/14 Position Update and Conference Cal
12/23/2014 8:30:24 AM
Marketing Partners Advisory
Recommendations Triggered
December 22, 2014

CORN:
2014-crop – We are 70% sold at Chicago March 2015 $4.60
Recommendation: sell 10% at Chicago March 2015 $4.22
2015-crop – We are 25% sold at Chicago December 2015 at $4.34
Recommendation: sell 10% at Chicago December 2015 $4.50 *New*

SOYBEANS:
2014-crop – We are 85% sold at Chicago Jan 2015 $11.66
Recommendation: Sell 15% at March 2015 at $11.00 *Revised from 10 to 15%*

2015-crop – We are 30% sold at Chicago November 2015 $10.27
Recommendation: Sell 5% at November 2015 at $11.00

WHEAT:
2014-crop
SRW – We are 70% sold at Chicago March 2015 $6.79
Recommendation: sell 10% at Chicago March 2015 $6.80 *New*
HRW – We are 100% sold at Kansas City March 2015 $7.45
HRS - We are 90% sold at Minneapolis March 2015 at $7.16

2015-crop
SRW – We are 50% sold at Chicago July 2015 $6.99
Recommendation: sell 10% at Chicago July 2015 $6.80 *New*
HRW – We are 40% sold at Kansas City July 2015 $7.49
HRS – We are 0% sold at Minneapolis December 2015
Recommendation: sell 10% at Minneapolis December 2015 $7.00

________________________________________
Marketing Partners Advisory
Conference Call Recap
December 22, 2014

The first of the back-to-back yearend holiday weeks is upon us. Traditionally this suggests less focused interest in the grains and oilseed markets as many industry participants are on vacation, the markets have shortened trading hours, and there is the lull following the northern hemisphere harvest until after the first of the year when the next new crop production cycles become more pertinent. However last week was an interesting week. The US Federal Reserve offered some interesting perspective on the state of the US and global economies suggesting things are not as robust as thought earlier in the fall. The global equity markets immediately responded with one of the biggest two day rallies in history and bond markets continued to price more of a deflation concern than an inflation concern. Last week the energy markets again continued their price decline but are showing some signs of price support from a technical price analysis perspective. Last week the US President also announced his plan to readdress the US relationship with Cuba, only to find a public and Congress which appear to be at odds with the decision. Another item which popped up last week was the USDA’s issuance of forwarding looking 10 year grains and oilseeds supply and demand projections. Obviously this drew some interest from many segments of our industry but it appears most recognize this for what it is, that being a baseline for federal government planning purposes. Reading too much into this data from a grains and oilseeds price/trading perspective may be overlooking the purpose of the report.

We are now entering the meeting season. Producer meetings which focus on grain markets, seed, agronomy, chemicals, finance, and trade association involvements are ramping up. Members of our group have recently been involved meeting with producers in various meeting formats to discuss forward looking price issues for the grains and oilseed markets. As we return from these meetings there are a few considerations which seem to be present in all our meetings and discussions with producers. They include –

1. Other than some yearend selling of grain inventories to address tax and cash flow considerations, producers seem very comfortable waiting to price/sell meaningful amounts of old crop and projected new crop 2015 inventories.
2. There is an expectation for lower US corn acres in the spring of 2015.
3. Producers are still operating from a strong equity position in spite of the meaningful decline in grains and oilseed prices in 2014. Many appear to be willing to use this strong equity position to help bide time waiting for the next meaningful price rally in the grains and oilseed markets and to use the equity to invest in the next production cycle related expenses.
4. More experienced producers quickly point out the current economic environment in which the forward look at grains and oilseed production agriculture economics is problematic, is not new. Much of their career the investment in the crop and planting the crop was done during times when the forward look at production economics did not assure profitability. Their experience was to plant the crop, hope for a price rally, and price inventory when the market did rally, when they needed cash, or when they needed storage space to address the next harvest.
5. There is little if any concern about 2015 spring dryness going into the winter months.
6. Producers are going through the numbers for 2015 relative to projected costs and cost alternatives.
7. There is generally a sentiment grains and oilseed prices will remain bearish. This is an interesting perspective.

Although the wheat market took a turn for the worse late last week from a technical price analysis perspective, in general the grains and oilseed markets traded rather sideways for the week. Much of the past sixty days’ price gains remain intact. We continue to see evidence producers are using the rally to price some yearend inventories, but not to aggressively pull the trigger on large amounts of inventory. This is not a surprise for us as we believe the producer has moved to a marketing strategy of selling only what needs to be sold for cash flow and tax purposes, preferring to try to wait out the current price mess and hoping for a new crop production problem to skyhook the markets. The risk to this strategy is that the new crop production threat does not materialize and as time goes by, the issue of time which is now an asset, becomes a threat because of the realization of the next harvest cycles.

We continue to see evidence the US is struggling to find demand for wheat, corn, and now soybean export sales. Competing exporter inventories are a problem as well as a general lack of a new crop production threat to prompt consumptive user coverage into the deferred months. New Chinese demand for US soybean exports seems to be waning.

Thus far the late fall and early winter weather developments/forecasts have been very benign. Winter wheat in US SRW and HRW growing areas is benefitting from the warmer temperatures and the recent rain activity. This is certainly a much different experience than the polar vortex events of last year. The recent rain events may have slowed remaining harvest activity (there are still some crops in the fields) but have also allowed any discussion of early spring 2015 dryness concerns to not exist.

For many the discussion of the past six months decline in the energy markets remains an important development. We completely understand this as we too feel like we’re stealing when we fill up our gas tanks. Reports of sub $2 a gallon unleaded seem to be more common in the past few days. Crude oil futures markets have stabilized over the past week, still below $60 a barrel but not extending the price decline to the $40 some dollar a barrel many in the media want to suggest is the target. Crude oil futures have been oversold from a technical price analysis perspective but to date have not exhibited a clear reversal pattern to suggest the trend has changed.

Please enjoy the Christmas Holiday, travel safely, and have a Blessed Christmas!

Best Regards – The Recommendations Group of Marketing Partners Advisory
About Marketing Partners Advisory
Doug Roose Becca Bunton
ADM - Benson Quinn
BQCI Morning Comments
12/24/2014 1:00:40 PM
...

Corn
12/24/2014 1:00:38 PM
...

Oilseeds
12/24/2014 1:00:40 PM
...

Hard Red Spring Wheat
12/24/2014 1:00:39 PM
...

About ADM - Benson Quinn
* The content on this page, including news, quotes, and commentary is not intended to provide information, advice or recommendations for trading purposes or any form of commercial activity. ADM expressly disclaims all warranties and representations, express or implied, as to the accuracy of any the content provided, or as to the fitness of the information for any purpose.
Futures
CORN
Last:
Change:
High:
Low:
414'6
7'0
415'0
405'6

SOYBEANS
Last:
Change:
High:
Low:
1048'0
19'2
1048'4
1028'4

* Futures composite price shown, delayed at least 10 minutes.

Current Conditions
36º

Feels Like 36º
High 34º Low 23º

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