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YELLOW CORN DiscountSchedule
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Bids*
Updated 4/22/14 3:43PM
YELLOW CORN (C)
Date
Futures
Basis
Opt
Cash
04/21/14 - 04/25/14
5.03
6.00
K
5.09
04/28/14 - 05/02/14
5.03
6.00
K
5.09
05/05/14 - 05/09/14
5.03
9.00
K
5.12
05/12/14 - 05/16/14
5.03
9.00
K
5.12
* Any information is subject to change with out notice. All information posted here is subject to final confirmation by ADM. Please contact this location at the above number to confirm posted Information.
Market Intelligence
ADMIS Daily Grain Commentary
ADMIS Opening Market View & Video
Mixed/lower grain trade. US dollar is lower. EU PMI data was higher than expected. Most commodities mixed/lower. China PMI data remained low but near expectations. US April 1 cattle on feed is est near 100 pct, placements 102 and marketing 97.

About ADMIS Daily Grain Commentary
Marketing Partners Advisory
Updated Recommendations and Conference Call Recap
Marketing Partners Advisory
Updated Recommendations and Conference Call Recap
April 23, 2014

All price recommendations below are futures price references (not cash equivalent)

SOYBEANS:
2014-crop – We are 50% sold at Chicago November 2014 $12.15
Recommendation: sell 10% at Chicago November 2014 $12.25 (new recommendation triggered on 4/22/14)

WHEAT:
2015-crop
SRW – We are 30% sold at Chicago July 2015 $7.07
Recommendation: sell 10% at Chicago July 2015 $7.00 (new recommendation triggered on 4/22/14)

________________________________________
CORN:
2013-crop – We are 100% sold at Chicago May 2014 $5.09

2014-crop – We are 40% sold at Chicago December 2014 $5.18
Recommendation: sell 10% at Chicago December 2014 $5.24

SOYBEANS:
2013-crop –We are 100% sold at Chicago May 2014 13.29

2014-crop – We are 50% sold at Chicago November 2014 $12.15
Recommendation: sell 10% at Chicago November 2014 $12.75 (replaced $12.55)

WHEAT:
2013-crop
SRW – We are 100% sold at Chicago December 2013 $7.77
HRW – We are 100% sold at Kansas City May 2014 $7.96
HRS – We are 100% sold at Minneapolis March 2014 $7.20

2014-crop
SRW – We are 50% sold at Chicago July 2014 $7.16
Recommendation: sell 10% at Chicago July 2014 $7.50
HRW – We are 55% sold at Kansas City July 2014 $7.55
Recommendation: sell 10% at Kansas City July 2014 $8.00
HRS - We are 20% sold at Minneapolis December 2014 at $7.40
Recommendation: sell 10% at Minneapolis December 2014 $8.00

2015-crop
SRW – We are 30% sold at Chicago July 2015 $7.07
Recommendation: sell 10% at Chicago July 2015 $7.50
HRW – We are 20% sold at Kansas City July 2015 $7.48
Recommendation: sell 10% at Kansas City July 2015 $8.00
________________________________________
Marketing Partners Advisory
Conference Call Recap
April 23, 2014

Don’t forget – these comments can be viewed via your smart phone or tablet – www.adm.com/farmerview !

Comments and discussion items from the weekly conference call of the recommendations group include the following.

1. Question – Has/Have the market(s) topped from a technical price analysis perspective? Our discussion – There are some signs from the past 2-3 weeks in wheat and 1-2 weeks in corn which suggest these markets have experienced some reversal price action. Most recently the corn and wheat futures markets have now moved below their 20 day price moving average. We have not witnessed the same type of price action in the soybean futures but will note lower price closes from last Friday and today (Monday).
2. Question – Has/Have the market(s) topped from a fundamental analysis perspective? Our discussion – Weather in the northern hemisphere to date has generally been supportive of early season new crop production projections. While there is concern in some areas of US HRW production, global new crop projections for another historically large wheat crop do not appear to be meaningfully impacted even with some downward adjustments in US HRW expectations. At this point we still feel there is a case to be made for new crop year global inventories of corn, wheat, and soybeans to be historically large. The short term forecast continues to suggest improving developments in many areas of the US.
3. Question – Will US corn planting progress reach 40% by the end of April? Our discussion – We would not be surprised to see this attained given the weather forecast for the balance of April.
4. Question – Has the old crop soybean “situation” in the US been resolved? Our discussion – We do not have a strong conviction on this issue. However we do believe the industry has worked aggressively to get in front of this issue and there is evidence purchases/imports have taken place and there are more to come.
5. Question – What is taking place relative to China? Our discussion – Recent cancellations of import soybean purchases by China suggest a few considerations. One is China may have “double bought” import cargoes of soybeans as a hedge against delays in the availability of new crop SA harvest inventories. Two is the crush margins in China are not robust (which is being kind in our assessment) thus the willingness to slow imports. Three is the on-going concern of a slowdown in economic activity in China which may be fostering a slowing of demand growth rates for imports. Perhaps the better question relative to China’s cancellation of soybean import cargoes is – Do the cancellations of Chinese soybean purchases positively impact the potential for favorable economics to import SA inventories into the US to help resolve the US balance sheet tightness? Our discussion – Yes as it may be driving SA basis values lower thus making the potential of additional SA exports of soybeans into the US economically viable.
6. Question – How might the funds impact the shorter term future of the grains and oilseed markets? Our discussion – The funds have been building a long position in the futures markets since early February 2013. They are now long a meaningful amount of futures. If the market has turned technically and if the weather forecast is supportive of new crop production projections, we would not be surprised if the funds begin some liquidation of current long positions.
7. It is still dry in portions of US HRW production. We would not be surprised to see production projections for HRW lowered in the coming weeks.


Best Regards – The Recommendations Group of Marketing Partners Advisory
About Marketing Partners Advisory
Doug Roose
ADM - Benson Quinn
BQCI Morning Comments
...

Corn
Corn started out higher overnight with
slower than anticipated planting progress helping
to trigger a turnaround Tuesday type bounce. The
USDA reported corn seeding at 6% complete
versus market expectations of 10% plus and the 5-
year average of 14%. The corn market continued
with a firmer bias throughout the session
eventually finish...

Oilseeds
Some fresh China rumors turned a higher overnight
trade into a lower day session with beans closing near bottom
of session range and below yesterday’s key support levels. The
latest talk that roiled market today was that China was looking
to auction state reserve bean stocks in early May adding more
beans to oversupplied market and that ...

Hard Red Spring Wheat
US wheat futures were mixed overnight and early in the day
session, but traded with a firmer tone late in the session. Today’s
price action didn’t look to be much more than a modest recovery of
yesterday’s sharply lower price action. The firm trade in the corn
market likely offered support, while the weakness in the soy complex
prob...

About ADM - Benson Quinn
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Futures
CORN
Last:
Change:
High:
Low:
503'0
6'6
504'2
494'4

* Futures composite price shown, delayed at least 10 minutes.
Radar Summary for CEDAR RAPIDS, IASee C°
Current Conditions
49º

Feels Like 43º
High 58º Low 40º

Radar
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