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Updated 7/30/14 3:43PM
07/28/14 - 08/01/14
3.53 S
08/04/14 - 08/08/14
3.53 S
08/11/14 - 08/15/14
3.53 S
08/18/14 - 08/22/14
3.53 S
* Any information is subject to change with out notice. All information posted here is subject to final confirmation by ADM. Please contact this location at the above number to confirm posted Information.
Market Intelligence
ADMIS Daily Grain Commentary
ADMIS AM Market View & Video
Lower grain trade, except for wheat; row crops under pressure from mostly favorable Midwest weather forecasts for 1st half of Aug expected to keep ratings high; $ index slips from 10-month high; euro steady near 1.3400; crude at 4-month low; cattle extends Thur’s losses; gold up $13 but near 6-wk low; US stock indexes starting lower, extending slide.
About ADMIS Daily Grain Commentary
Marketing Partners Advisory
M.P.A 7/28/14 Position Updates and Conf Call Recap
Marketing Partners Advisory
Position Updates
July 28, 2014

All price recommendations below are futures price references (not cash equivalent)

2014-crop – We are 40% sold at Chicago December 2014 $5.18
Recommendation: sell 20% at Chicago December 2014 $4.50
Recommendation: sell 10% at Chicago December 2014 $4.65
2015-crop – We are 5% sold at Chicago December 2015 at $5.02

2014-crop – We are 60% sold at Chicago November 2014 $12.25
Recommendation: sell 10% at Chicago November 2014 $12.00
2015-crop – We are 5% sold at Chicago November 2015 $12.03
Recommendation: sell 5% at Chicago November 2015 $ 12.07

SRW – We are 50% sold at Chicago Sept 2014 $7.16
Recommendation: sell 20% at Chicago Sept 2014 $6.00
HRW – We are 75% sold at Kansas City Sept 2014 $7.73
Recommendation: sell 10% at Kansas City Sept 2014 $7.50
HRS - We are 50% sold at Minneapolis December 2014 at $7.82
Recommendation: sell 10% at Minneapolis December 2014 $7.35

SRW – We are 40% sold at Chicago July 2015 $7.18
HRW – We are 30% sold at Kansas City July 2015 $7.65

Marketing Partners Advisory
Conference Call Recap
July 28, 2014

The following is a review of some of the comments and discussion items from the weekly conference call of the recommendations group of Marketing Partners Advisory –

1. Today’s (Monday) price action prompted a number of questions about whether the soybean market had seen the bottom given yesterday’s price rally and the market’s ability to come off recent price lows last week. To answer this question – we don’t think so. However this does not preclude a short term price rally as the market technically is moving through some of the shorter term price moving averages, there are some headlines suggesting the August weather pattern may be a bit drier, and we continue to see evidence of new crop export sales. Trending markets rarely move in a straight line. Markets also can have a tendency to get ahead of (short term over bought or oversold) the longer term fundamental realities as traders rush to get in front of anticipated longer term price developments.
2. We continue to see evidence of strong US soybean export sales for the new crop year. This development is consistent with what has been projected by the USDA since May when the USDA issued the first new crop year projections. However the timing of the business may be providing some short term price support to the futures markets. We anticipate the execution of the export business may provide some very interesting developments for the cash market in the new crop year.
3. Given the recent developments in Ukraine there are once again reports of additional sanctions being put in place against Russia. Some of the reports suggest the sanctions will be more severe and include sanctions in the banking industry. While the sanctions may provide some economic stress for Russia in the short term they may also further the process of Russia and other countries moving away from trading activity linked to the US dollar as the exchange currency.
4. Recent rains in portions of Minnesota and the Dakotas have been very timely as the discussion was changing from that of the wet spring to that of not having much rain during the entire month of July. We continue to interpret weather developments for US production to be favorable to new crop production potential. Recent weather developments will likely further the expectation the USDA’s August reports will sustain and/or increase US and northern hemisphere new crop production projections.
5. We realize there has been a very problematic rail freight environment for grain shippers in portions of the US for an extended period of time. We do not anticipate this issue to disappear in the short term. Strong demand for the assets of the rail industry is not limited to grains and oilseeds and energy. The impact of this issue may continue to be played out in the coming months impacting the basis markets and cash grain market spreads as the grains and oilseed markets stem demand in the new crop year.
6. How are producers responding to the current price environment for grains and oilseeds? We continue to see evidence producers are “hunkering down” trying to ride out what appears to be an economic storm. Cash grain selling generally remains slow in spite of the projections for historically large new crop year inventories domestically and globally. The more experienced industry participants have been through this before, but not in the past decade or longer. History suggests producers will try to hold tight to grain inventories as a response to the lower price environment and try to limit cash grain sales to only that which is needed to address income/cash flow needs and/or space logistics. Again history suggests bushels represent economic bullets to address financial needs in the future if the current grains and oilseeds price environment persists for an extended period of time. We have all heard stories of people stashing valuables under a mattress or burying them in a can in the yard when things get tough. The attempt to keep grain inventories in reserve when the price environment for grains and oilseeds gets problematic is consistent with these considerations. Some will refer to this as a do nothing marketing strategy. We believe there is a time and/or a place to engage a do nothing marketing strategy. In certain situations this strategy is consistent with the needs of the user and expectations the user of the strategy has for the future. Peace of mind is a very pertinent need in times of economic uncertainty.
7. Lastly – Over the course of time the recommendations group makes recommendations which reflect strategy consistent with our thoughts at that time. In the past we have left those recommendations in place even though the price environment and our expectations for price may be evolving. If those outstanding recommendations are not filled eventually we will likely cancel them for a number of reasons. We want to caution clients who may be looking at those outstanding recommendations and assuming we still believe the market will/can go to those price levels whether they are much higher or lower than current values and the current price environment. We continue to wrestle with how to handle this issue as there are valid considerations on both sides of the discussion as to whether and when we should take the outstanding recommendations off the table. More later on this issue.

Best Regards – The Recommendations Group of Marketing Partners Advisory

About Marketing Partners Advisory
Doug Roose
ADM - Benson Quinn
BQCI Morning Comments

Corn futures were under pressure as forecasts continue
to offer rains through the middle of next week and into next
weekend for much of the corn belt. Additionally, the
technical structure of the market has weakened on lower
trade the last couple of sessions. Meanwhile, global feed
wheat supplies are increasing in direct competition...

After a schlocky two-sided session yesterday, the
trade dumped on the beans today with a hefty bout of fresh
new month selling. Weather outlook for 3”+ rainfalls across
MN/IA border early next week put the pressure back on to the
downside as the November contract closed just short of its
contract low close scored in mid-July. Meal and so...

Hard Red Spring Wheat
After yesterday’s sloppy, month end close, wheat futures
found support overnight and traded strong early in the day
session, limped into the close. Concerns about the overall quality
of the EU crop and firming technicals are offering support. Initial
trade above the 20 day moving averages in Chicago and KC
triggered a round of short ...

About ADM - Benson Quinn
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* Futures composite price shown, delayed at least 10 minutes.
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