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Unapproved Seed Traits
Yellow Soybeans DiscountSchedule
Bids*
Soybean Meal (SM)
Date
Futures
Basis
Opt
Cash
09/01/14 - 09/30/14
317.10
USD/TN S
170.00
USD/TN
V
12.1775
USD/BU

Yellow Soybeans (Composite) (QBS)
Date
Futures
Basis
Opt
Cash
09/23/14 - 09/30/14
9.3625
USD/BU S
10.00
USD/BU
X
9.4625
USD/BU
10/01/14 - 11/30/14
9.3625
USD/BU S
-40.00
USD/BU
X
8.9625
USD/BU
12/01/14 - 01/31/15
9.4375
USD/BU S
-35.00
USD/BU
F
9.0875
USD/BU

* Any information is subject to change with out notice. All information posted here is subject to final confirmation by ADM. Please contact this location at the above number to confirm posted Information.
Market Intelligence
ADMIS Daily Grain Commentary
ADMIS AM Market View & Video
9/23/2014 8:46:49 AM
First day of fall. Best time of the year to be a farmer. Quiet/lower grain trade. US Dollar is lower. Most commodities are higher. China PMI data was better than expected.
About ADMIS Daily Grain Commentary
Marketing Partners Advisory
M.P.A 9/22/14 Recommendations and Conf Call Recap
9/23/2014 9:44:10 AM
All price recommendations below are futures price references (not cash equivalent)

CORN:
2014-crop – We are 40% sold at Chicago December 2014 $5.18
Recommendation: sell 5% at Chicago March 2015 $3.80
Recommendation: sell 20% at Chicago December 2014 $4.50
Recommendation: sell 10% at Chicago December 2014 $4.65
2015-crop – We are 5% sold at Chicago December 2015 at $5.02

SOYBEANS:
2014-crop – We are 60% sold at Chicago November 2014 $12.25
Recommendation: sell 5% at Chicago March 2015 $10.25
Recommendation: sell 10% at Chicago November 2014 $12.00

2015-crop – We are 5% sold at Chicago November 2015 $12.03
Recommendation: sell 5% at Chicago November 2015 $ 12.07

WHEAT:
2014-crop
SRW – We are 60% sold at Chicago Sept 2014 $6.88
Recommendation: sell 20% at Chicago Sept 2014 $5.75
Recommendation: sell 20% at Chicago Sept 2014 $6.00
HRW – We are 85% sold at Kansas City Sept 2014 $7.59
Recommendation: sell 10% at Kansas City Sept 2014 $7.50
HRS - We are 50% sold at Minneapolis December 2014 at $7.82
Recommendation: sell 10% at Minneapolis December 2014 $7.35

2015-crop
SRW – We are 40% sold at Chicago July 2015 $7.18
Recommendation: sell 10% at Chicago July 2015 $6.25
HRW – We are 30% sold at Kansas City July 2015 $7.65
Recommendation: sell 10% at Minneapolis December 2015 $7.00
________________________________________
Marketing Partners Advisory
Conference Call Recap
September 22, 2014

In a typical year it is common a number of questions will be asked as the industry moves into and through the harvest cycle. What will be the price lows? When will they be realized? How big is the crop? Will there be a meaningful price rally once the market realizes the price lows? Again these are common questions for this time of year, but this year there seems to be even more emphasis on these questions given the magnitude of the price declines in the grains and oilseed markets and the potential impact this year’s price developments may have on the industry going forward.

Some thoughts on these questions -

1. The crop is going to be historically large both domestically and globally. The same can be said for the totality of the new crop year inventories, whether one is considering the inventory question by commodity or collectively. We do not anticipate the fine tuning of the crop size in the next few weeks will meaningfully impact the exact measure of the price lows, but rather may be more important to the issue of what happens later in the crop year as the market begins to assess the 2015 production cycles and even later still as the market transitions to the 2015 harvest. Picking a price low is a game of chance. There are many moving parts which go into the process of picking “the” price. Perhaps a better way to address this issue as a producer or consumptive user may be to let the market and price action tell one what is the price low. If the price low truly is the price low, it may matter little if one misses it by a bit in price and time to gain greater assurance it truly is the price low. There are signals technically which will likely signal the price low as well as some signs from a more traditional perspective. They may include – evidence the market is reaching to access supplies, indications the market is sensing a southern hemisphere production problem, completion of the harvest process at the farm and beyond, etc. We will also suggest the most meaningful realization of price lows for both the producer and consumptive user may be the cash market rather than solely the futures market. Both the producer and consumptive user ultimately deal with cash grain prices and not just the futures market. In a year in which supplies are strong and demand is robust the basis markets may do more work to address the issue of defining the price lows than in recent years.
2. Historically the grains and oilseed markets have exhibited a tendency to find price lows when the harvest is in the area of 50% complete. However there is also some history the markets can stay around the price lows for a period of time in years when supplies are ample and the markets have a hard time earning the carry. In those years the price premiums in the back months of the price structure have a tendency to decline to the lower prices of the front months of the price structure as time goes by.
3. As far as the bigness of this year’s new crop production, the early harvest reports are tending to confirm the past couple months’ expectations for yields to be historically high. Reports from harvest to date are generally very robust in most areas; setting the stage for sentiment the USDA may again increase yield and production data in the coming months.
4. The issue of the extent of a post-harvest price rally is of interest to both producers and consumptive users. This is always an interesting question which tends to prompt another question. The other question is – In what time frame? If one is considering the question in a vacuum which excludes the discussion of the potential for the next production cycle, the current supply and demand data may suggest a post-harvest rally may be limited. However that is not the real world as there is no way the markets can escape the discussion of the next production cycle considerations as the crop year unfolds and the impact that will have dragging the now old crop markets higher or lower than the harvest lows of the current production cycle.

The weather – At this point the two week weather forecast for the US suggests ideal crop maturation and harvest are in the offing. There was some adverse weather in some portions of the US late last week and into the weekend with some minor frost in the northern Corn Belt and some hail across portions of the central growing areas of the US. We do not believe these weather developments prompt any meaningful concern for US production potential for corn or soybeans. The conversation however should not be limited to the US forecast only as the markets are in the early stages of focusing on southern hemisphere production issues. There too we do not see weather considerations which appear to be a threat to early season production developments and/or production projections.

As we have mentioned in the past, we continue to see evidence demand for new crop inventories is strong, at least in the short term. The systems of the industry at the farm and beyond are going to be asked to do much in the coming months to address the harvest and stem new crop demand. Producer sentiment relative to price finalization of new crop inventories remains one of preferring to wait to price rather than that of aggressive pricing interest. We anticipate the willingness to price may increase later in the harvest cycle if yields prove to be overwhelmingly positive and/or on-farm storage space limitations are realized.


Best Regards – The Recommendations Group of Marketing Partners Advisory
About Marketing Partners Advisory
Doug Roose Becca Bunton
ADM - Benson Quinn
BQCI Morning Comments
9/23/2014 8:32:16 AM
...

Corn
9/22/2014 3:39:51 PM
US corn futures used the same inputs as last week to
extend the price drop. The trade continues to leverage talk
of better than expected yields and favorable weather for the
bulk of the Corn Belt. While the technicals remain weak and
the market did attract additional selling with new lows for
the move, the corn market did rally off ...

Oilseeds
9/23/2014 3:15:37 PM
It was a two-sided session that ended with beans
settling mildly lower. Slow harvest pace at 3% vs. average of
8% complete may have offered some support today with
market getting ahead of itself with majority of harvest and
yield data to come. Better-than-expected China flash PMI at
50.5 vs. estimate at 50.0 was certainly support overnig...

Hard Red Spring Wheat
9/22/2014 3:09:19 PM
Wheat futures found support overnight as the sale of 1
cargo of US SRW to GASC triggered short covering in Chicago,
while also influencing overnight price action in KC and Mpls.
Wheat markets were quick to find new selling on a new low for
the move once a higher open did not attract buying. Whether it
was additional buying on the ope...

About ADM - Benson Quinn
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Hours
Week of 9/22
Mon: Closed
Tues: 6am-4pm
Wed: 6am-4pm
Thurs-Sun: TBA
Contacts
Mike Irons
Manager
email >
Barry Hand
Merchandiser
email >
Duane Drake
Merchandiser
email >
Futures
09/23/14 10:21 PM GMT
SOYBEANS
Last:
Change:
High:
Low:
936'2
-2'0
944'4
931'0

WHEAT
Last:
Change:
High:
Low:
476'0
-0'6
479'6
471'0

CORN
Last:
Change:
High:
Low:
325'4
-4'6
331'0
324'6

SOYBEAN MEAL
Last:
Change:
High:
Low:
317.10
-2.30
320.50
316.30

* Futures composite price shown, delayed at least 10 minutes.
Weather for FREMONT, NESee C°
Current Conditions
69º

Feels Like 69º
High 67º Low 58º
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