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Market Intelligence
ADMIS Daily Grain Commentary
ADMIS Opening Market View & Video
4/22/2014 8:50:25 AM
Higher grain trade. Some were looking for a bounce after Mon sharp losses. US Dollar is lwr. Most commodities are mixed/higher.

Most financials & commodity markets are watching US/China econ news, news on Ukraine & reports Barclays is exiting commodity trade including the Ag’s.

Traditional funds are est to be long 179,000 soybeans, 70,000 soymeal, 20,000 soyoil, 230,000 corn and 28,500 wheat.
About ADMIS Daily Grain Commentary
Marketing Partners Advisory
M.P.A 4/14/14 Position Update and Conference Call
4/15/2014 7:29:04 AM
Marketing Partners Advisory
Positions Update
April 14, 2014

All price recommendations below are futures price references (not cash equivalent)

CORN:
2013-crop – We are 100% sold at Chicago May 2014 $5.09

2014-crop – We are 40% sold at Chicago December 2014 $5.18
Recommendation: sell 10% at Chicago December 2014 $5.24

SOYBEANS:
2013-crop –We are 100% sold at Chicago May 2014 13.29

2014-crop – We are 40% sold at Chicago November 2014 $12.12
Recommendation: sell 10% at Chicago November 2014 $12.55

WHEAT:
2013-crop
SRW – We are 100% sold at Chicago December 2013 $7.77
HRW – We are 100% sold at Kansas City May 2014 $7.96
HRS – We are 100% sold at Minneapolis March 2014 $7.20

2014-crop
SRW – We are 50% sold at Chicago July 2014 $7.16
Recommendation: sell 10% at Chicago July 2014 $7.50
HRW – We are 55% sold at Kansas City July 2014 $7.55
Recommendation: sell 10% at Kansas City July 2014 $8.00
HRS - We are 20% sold at Minneapolis December 2014 at $7.40
Recommendation: sell 10% at Minneapolis December 2014 $8.00

2015-crop
SRW – We are 20% sold at Chicago July 2015 $7.10
Recommendation: sell 10% at Chicago July 2015 $7.50
HRW – We are 10% sold at Kansas City July 2015 $7.25
Recommendation: sell 10% at Kansas City July 2015 $7.70
Recommendation: sell 10% at Kansas City July 2015 $8.00
_______________________________________
Marketing Partners Advisory
Conference Call Recap
April 14, 2014

Don’t forget – these comments can be viewed via your smart phone or tablet – www.adm.com/farmerview !

For the past couple of weeks much of the discussion of the grains and oilseed markets has been focused on the batch of USDA reports from late March through the release of the April WASDE report last week. In the background of these considerations were murmurs of some concern about dryness in portions of US HRW growing areas and some early season concern about spring planting delays in the US. Now that the release of the USDA reports is behind the market much of the discussion of future and longer term price developments will likely focus on weather developments as they impact northern hemisphere new crop grains and oilseed production.

In the immediate weather forecast there appears to be some optimism about planting progress in many areas of the US. The best opportunities may exist in the western US Corn Belt as the current forecast suggests a window of a couple weeks may be in the offing with warmer and dryer conditions supporting spring work. But therein may also exist further concern about the dryness issues which linger in portions of the US HRW growing areas. Many areas of US HRW production are now at a point in plant development which requires additional moisture to support optimal plant development. This does not appear to be in the forecast in the next couple of weeks. We anticipate this issue will begin to be considered in a negative manner and the market chatter will begin to define the extent of yield and production declines as a result of the adverse weather developments. However in the context of global wheat production potential the developments in US HRW growing areas may not materially impact the current expectations for global new crop wheat production to be historically large in the new crop year.

We continue to hear and see anecdotal evidence economic growth rates in China and other emerging markets are slowing. While difficult to measure the impact this may have on demand growth rates for global grains and oilseeds, we continue to anticipate slowing economic activity will likely also negatively impact demand growth rates for grains and oilseeds to some extent. This does not suggest global demand for grains and oilseeds will decline in the coming year, but demand growth may slow at a time when global planted acreage and the utilization of grains and oilseed production enhancing technology may be historically high.

The funds remain long meaningful amounts of grains and oilseed futures contracts. We find this to potentially be a bit problematic for prices if and when the weather conditions improve and the market begins to get reports of meaningful corn planting progress and plant development. We will also note the recent rain activity in many portions of the US Corn Belt which to this point has delayed spring planting progress, may quickly become very supportive to new crop development once the crop is planted.

Last week’s USDA April WASDE report once again suggested the US will continue to experience tight ending stocks of soybeans as the balance of the crop year evolves. However we also anticipate the industry is moving aggressively to address this issue when the economics of importing soybeans successfully are presented. There are a number of moving parts in this process as the industry measures SA soybean values, US soybean values, freight markets, timing, and logistics which allow this process to be completed successfully. The increase in US soybean imports presented in the April WASDE affirms this as a primary task of the old crop soybean market in the US as the crop year moves forward.


Best Regards – The Recommendations Group of Marketing Partners Advisory
About Marketing Partners Advisory
Doug Roose
ADM - Benson Quinn
BQCI Morning Comments
4/22/2014 8:10:18 AM
...

Corn
4/21/2014 3:41:37 PM
Corn along with the rest of the Ag complex
traded quietly lower overnight as trade returned
from the 3-day weekend. Selling pressure
accelerated shortly after the morning pause with
session lows being put in by midday, the market did
manage to recover a portion of the day’s early losses
finishing down only 6-7 cents. Fund/chart selling...

Oilseeds
4/21/2014 3:34:25 PM
Beans were lower on the day as general liquidation theme
seemed to prevail across the Ag complex. Loses in the overnight
session were modest with beans trading a narrow 3-cent range but
as market neared the morning pause, selling become more dynamic
and flowed into the day session with heavy liquidation seen in the
beans and wheat before...

Hard Red Spring Wheat
4/21/2014 3:37:02 PM
US wheat futures were lower overnight session and faced a
sharp selloff early in the day session. With the upward momentum of
early last week fading on Thurs and Friday’s sessions failing to alter a
weaker technical stance, the weekend news cycle lacked the
supportive inputs needed to sustain higher prices. The issue in
Ukraine cont...

About ADM - Benson Quinn
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Futures
04/22/14 06:31 PM GMT
WHEAT
Last:
Change:
High:
Low:
672'4
4'2
677'2
662'4

SOYBEANS
Last:
Change:
High:
Low:
1481'2
-17'4
1508'6
1477'2

CORN
Last:
Change:
High:
Low:
496'0
7'4
500'0
487'2

* Futures composite price shown, delayed at least 10 minutes.
Weather for LINCOLN, NESee C°
Current Conditions
61º

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High 73º Low 38º

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