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ADMIS Daily Grain Commentary
ADMIS AM Market View & Video
9/30/2014 8:47:54 AM
Trade est for today’s USDA 2014 All Wheat prod is 2.037 bil bu; the 2013 revised soybean crop is seen at 3.362 bil bu. Quarterly wheat stocks are est at 1.880 bil bu; corn 1.185 bil bu; and, soybeans 126 mil bu.

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Marketing Partners Advisory
M.P.A 9/29/14 Recommendations and Conf Call Recap
9/30/2014 8:40:33 AM
Marketing Partners Advisory
Position Update and Conference Call Recap
September 29, 2014

All price recommendations below are futures price references (not cash equivalent)

2014-crop – We are 40% sold at Chicago December 2014 $5.18
Recommendation: sell 5% at Chicago March 2015 $3.80
2015-crop – We are 5% sold at Chicago December 2015 at $5.02

2014-crop – We are 60% sold at Chicago November 2014 $12.25
Recommendation: sell 5% at Chicago March 2015 $10.25

2015-crop – We are 5% sold at Chicago November 2015 $12.03

SRW – We are 60% sold at Chicago Dec 2014 $6.88
HRW – We are 85% sold at Kansas City Sept 2014 $7.59
HRS - We are 50% sold at Minneapolis December 2014 at $7.82

SRW – We are 40% sold at Chicago July 2015 $7.18
Recommendation: sell 10% at Chicago July 2015 $6.25
HRW – We are 30% sold at Kansas City July 2015 $7.65
Recommendation: sell 10% at Minneapolis December 2015 $7.00
Marketing Partners Advisory
Conference Call Recap
September 29, 2014

Comments and discussion items from the weekly conference call of the recommendations group of Marketing Partners Advisory include the following –

1. Harvest activity is now taking place in most areas of the US. While some of the past weekend’s rain activity may have slowed the harvest in some areas, the forecast for this week suggests most areas should be able to move forward with the harvest. Yield reports for corn and soybeans continue to be generally excellent. There still remains an expectation the October data from the USDA will reflect some minor changes to yields, although not to the extent it meaningfully changes the task of price in the coming weeks and months.
2. Although much of the current conversation is focused on the harvest and yield reports, we continue to see evidence new crop demand is working to stem inventories as producer selling (it is early in many areas) still remains relatively light. We have felt and hear anecdotal evidence prior/earlier producer sales for new crop inventories to date are noticeably small. We also are hearing reports of producer interest in marketing alternatives which allow the producer to stay open on pricing via the use of delayed/price later and option strategies.
3. Many areas of US HRW and SRW growing areas continue to experience very good planting conditions and early season growth as a result of recent weather events. At this point we do not sense any meaningful change relative to producer interest in planting winter wheats as a result of the lower price environment.
4. Areas of the western Corn Belt are now seeing new crop prices for corn well below $3 and new crop soybean prices well below $9. While much of this is in response to the lower futures markets it also reflects historically high freight costs which are a consideration in the basis component of price. As a result of the lower price and the carrying charge price structure producer reluctance to price new crop inventories is commonplace. It is interesting to consider how the freight markets and carrying charge price structure appear to be at odds with the task of the market to stem large amounts of new crop inventories in the early stages of the new crop year. Distressed inventories (meaning harvest inventories which cannot find longer term storage) may be able to address this issue should they materialize.
5. At this time we are generally reluctant to offer new/additional pricing recommendations preferring to let things settle a bit. Soon the discussion of new crop considerations for the southern hemisphere will become more meaningful for grains and oilseed prices as well as the early discussion of northern hemisphere fall planted crops and the early acreage considerations for spring 2015 planted crops.
6. We continue to see fund length in the corn futures market. This issue has been a provided a bit of concern over the past few months as some fear further fund liquidation may be needed to flush the market to price lows.

Best Regards – The Recommendations Group of Marketing Partners Advisory
About Marketing Partners Advisory
Doug Roose Becca Bunton
ADM - Benson Quinn
BQCI Morning Comments
9/30/2014 8:06:42 AM

9/30/2014 3:20:30 PM
US corn futures were weak overnight and traded
with a defensive tone ahead of the report. Credit the
report for much better volume than the prior sessions.
Negative features haven’t changed with big yield reports,
weak technicals and generally favorable near term
weather for the eastern corn belt offering resistance.
Trade to a n...

9/30/2014 3:46:49 PM
Beans closed lower on the day but it did have its ups and
downs with today’s USDA quarterly stocks report offering up some
excitement. The overnight session and day session had resumed lower
trend after yesterday’s afternoon steady crop condition rating imply
lofty yields will continue and a harvest pace at 10% complete imply
harvest hed...

Hard Red Spring Wheat
9/30/2014 3:20:20 PM
On the heels of yesterday’s recovery, US wheat futures
could not attract any additional short covering overnight. The
defensive overnight tone gave way to active selling and a test
of the prior lows early in the session. Volume for pre-report
trade was decent for both the overnight trade and early in the
session. Negative inputs hav...

About ADM - Benson Quinn
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10/01/14 08:10 AM GMT





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