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ADMIS Daily Grain Commentary
ADMIS AM Market View & Video
9/19/2014 8:35:31 AM
Grains are lower. Could be active US harvest wkend. US domestic corn & soybean basis levels are softer. Bigger US 2014 corn and soybean supplies should continue to weigh on prices. US farmland values dropped for 10th month in Sep. Lowest since Mar 2009. US Dollar is higher. Most commodities mixed/lower. Scottish voted no. Euro lower. World stocks higher.

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Marketing Partners Advisory
M.P.A 9/15/14 Recommendations and Conf Call Recap
9/16/2014 8:50:37 AM
2014-crop – We are 40% sold at Chicago December 2014 $5.18
Recommendation: sell 5% at Chicago March 2015 $3.80
Recommendation: sell 20% at Chicago December 2014 $4.50
Recommendation: sell 10% at Chicago December 2014 $4.65
2015-crop – We are 5% sold at Chicago December 2015 at $5.02

2014-crop – We are 60% sold at Chicago November 2014 $12.25
Recommendation: sell 5% at Chicago March 2015 $10.25
Recommendation: sell 10% at Chicago November 2014 $12.00

2015-crop – We are 5% sold at Chicago November 2015 $12.03
Recommendation: sell 5% at Chicago November 2015 $ 12.07

SRW – We are 60% sold at Chicago Sept 2014 $6.88
Recommendation: sell 20% at Chicago Sept 2014 $5.75
Recommendation: sell 20% at Chicago Sept 2014 $6.00
HRW – We are 85% sold at Kansas City Sept 2014 $7.59
Recommendation: sell 10% at Kansas City Sept 2014 $7.50
HRS - We are 50% sold at Minneapolis December 2014 at $7.82
Recommendation: sell 10% at Minneapolis December 2014 $7.35

SRW – We are 40% sold at Chicago July 2015 $7.18
Recommendation: sell 10% at Chicago July 2015 $6.25
HRW – We are 30% sold at Kansas City July 2015 $7.65
Recommendation: sell 10% at Minneapolis December 2015 $7.00
Marketing Partners Advisory
Conference Call Recap
September 15, 2014

Harvest is now taking place in most northern hemisphere production areas. Reports of yields for corn, soybeans, and wheat remain generally supportive of the historically large global and domestic production data announced last week by the USDA. Fall weather has also generally been supportive of new crop production with a few exceptions as a result of the cooler and wetter conditions which have been in place most of the growing season. We continue to hear of some minor harvest delays for spring planted crops and additional reports of quality issues for northern hemisphere wheat. However overall yield reports tend to confirm the expectations of very good yields and in some instances astounding yields.

Additional comments from the weekly conference call of the recommendations group of Marketing Partners Advisory include the following –

1. Some wet weather this week in the US may delay fall harvest activities. This may help extend some of the spot premiums being paid for quick shipment. However we expect these premiums will soon evaporate and the entire system will move to new crop pricing values.
2. The wetter fall weather pattern continues to be supportive of early growing season considerations globally for fall planted crops.
3. Later this week there will be some data released from the FSA in reference to US planted acreage from the spring of 2014. We are not sure how to anticipate the data nor are we comfortable assuming how and if the data will soon be built into the USDA’s 2014/15 crop year balance sheets. We consider the data to be low on the significance scale for grains and oilseed prices as the bigger price picture issue now may be the yield consideration of fall harvested crops.
4. The frost event last week did not meaningfully impact production considerations for the US or Canada.
5. Interestingly we continue to see producer selling interest in corn in some of what are traditionally considered to be SW US Corn Belt growing areas. To this point this selling interest does not appear to be consistent with what we are seeing in most corn production areas. In general the US producers seem intent on not finalizing pricing on new crop fall harvested inventories.
6. At this point we do not sense there are early season weather considerations in South America which threaten the early corn, wheat, or soybean new crop production potential.
7. We continue to see and hear reports of US producer focus on cost of production issues for the upcoming 2015 production cycle. At this point we do not sense there is a widespread movement to cut back on production inputs but rather to perhaps tweak the planted acreage crop mix as a way to reduce the investment risk of 2015 production. This is only the beginning of this story as the fall harvest is of more immediate concern. Perhaps if seed costs and/or agronomic support costs begin to decline it may change the focus of producer actions to address the lower price environment for grains and oilseeds.

Best Regards – The Recommendations Group of Marketing Partners Advisory
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Doug Roose Becca Bunton
ADM - Benson Quinn
BQCI Morning Comments
9/19/2014 8:19:40 AM

9/18/2014 3:15:12 PM
US corn futures spent another day trading in a narrow
range with a weaker bias and low volume. The lower
overnight price action can be associated with the customary
negative inputs that haven’t changed for months, while
higher price action in the US dollar late yesterday afternoon
and overnight was a negative input. The corn market ...

9/18/2014 3:24:00 PM
Beans slipped lower today as “big crops are getting bigger”.
The soybean market remains sideways and range bound but today’s
lower close pinned the market at low side of recent range and at
contract low closes across the contract curve. Thoughts of big weekly
export sales were supportive firmer overnight night but the release
actual data...

Hard Red Spring Wheat
9/18/2014 3:15:19 PM
Wheat futures were weaker overnight and got belted
again this morning as new lows for the move trigger
additional selling and harvest pressure remains a feature in
Mpls. Firm trade in the US dollar late yesterday afternoon
and overnight offered resistance. The US dollar came well off
its highs early in the session in very volatile tr...

About ADM - Benson Quinn
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09/19/14 05:51 PM GMT





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