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ADMIS Daily Grain Commentary
ADMIS AM Market View & Video
1/23/2015 8:52:30 AM
Mixed/lower grain calls. US stocks, Bonds & Crude are higher. Dollar sharply higher. Metals are lower.

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Marketing Partners Advisory
M.P.A. 1/21/15 Position Update and Conference Call
1/22/2015 11:06:21 AM
Marketing Partners Advisory
Position Updated and Recommendations
January 21, 2015

2014-crop – We are 70% sold at Chicago March 2015 $4.60
Recommendation: sell 10% at Chicago March 2015 $4.22
2015-crop – We are 25% sold at Chicago December 2015 at $4.34
Recommendation: sell 10% at Chicago December 2015 $4.50

2014-crop – We are 85% sold at Chicago March 2015 $11.66
Recommendation: Sell 15% at March 2015 at $11.00

2015-crop – We are 30% sold at Chicago November 2015 $10.27
Recommendation: Sell 5% at November 2015 at $11.00

SRW – We are 70% sold at Chicago March 2015 $6.79
Recommendation: sell 10% at Chicago March 2015 $5.90
Recommendation: sell 10% at Chicago March 2015 $6.80
HRW – We are 100% sold at Kansas City March 2015 $7.45
HRS - We are 90% sold at Minneapolis March 2015 at $7.16
Recommendation: sell 10% at Minneapolis March 2015 $6.30

SRW – We are 50% sold at Chicago July 2015 $6.99
Recommendation: sell 10% at Chicago July 2015 $6.80
HRW – We are 40% sold at Kansas City July 2015 $7.49
HRS – We are 0% sold at Minneapolis December 2015
Recommendation: sell 10% at Minneapolis December 2015 $7.00

Marketing Partners Advisory
Conference Call Recap
January 21, 2015

It has been relatively apparent the grains and oilseed markets have been a bit lackluster during the holiday season and thus far in January 2015. This is not unusual as the market tends to relax a bit following the northern hemisphere harvest and as it marks time measuring new crop developments in the southern hemisphere, most notably South America. This is also the time which is the run up to the traditional winter meeting season. The meeting season is just beginning. Seed companies, crop insurance companies, finance companies, trade associations, etc. are all getting in front of the producer. We too are involved in these meetings, typically from the perspective of providing market outlooks and related marketing strategy. To that end the most common question is one that is present in all marketing meetings we participate in, that being which way is the market headed? We believe that question is now most frequently answered by the response – The look ahead at new crop projections, when coupled with the global and domestic projected old crop carryout, appear to support a bearish price bias. At this point it is likely the farmer has heard this response since May 2014 relative to prices for the fall of 2014 and now in the early discussions of prices for 2015. They’re probably tired of this.

Our experience to this point in the meeting season affirms the farmer has heard this story before. They are looking for a reason for prices to rally and looking for creative trading strategies to mitigate the negative impact of current lower prices and the projected lower prices for the 2015 crop year. Who can blame them? Linked to this has been reluctance by the producer to price/market additional old crop and projected new crop inventories. To a certain extent this reluctance had an impact helping the corn, wheat, and soybean markets rally in early October. From early October through the balance of the harvest the systems of the industry were able to re-pipeline inventory to the extent the available supply of corn, wheat, and soybeans is much improved and perhaps historically large versus the supply environment in the run up to the 2014 fall harvest. Once this development took place the grains and oilseed markets have experienced a stall in the futures market rally, and most recently a price decline from the rally’s highs.

There are a couple of reasons for the stall of the rally and the recent price decline. One is the ability of the systems of the industry to re-pipeline and as such more readily access inventory via a basis market rally. The other is the lack of a new crop production threat for southern hemisphere new crop inventories. It is likely both of these considerations will remain in place in the coming weeks as focal points for the discussion of grains and oilseed prices. This will then take the markets to the new crop discussion for the northern hemisphere production cycle. Typically this becomes another window in time during which the markets’ price sensitivity increases, price volatility and velocity are heightened, and the discussion of the potential of a new crop production threat or lack thereof becomes more compressed than the view of the past weeks and months which has been through a longer lens. In the past some have referred to this period as the silly season.
Coupled with the more compressed discussion of a new crop production threat is also the fact that the remainder of the old crop year will be more compressed. The issue of how to deal with remaining old crop inventories is more compressed, especially if the new crop discussion lacks a production threat. It is likely the old crop surplus inventory will then become more pertinent to short term price developments versus the discussion of this issue 3-4 months ago.

At this point we continue to believe new crop developments in South America remain positive and generally supportive of the current USDA projections for another historically large crop of soybeans. Expectations for new crop corn supplies for SA also continue to be adequate. From a production calendar date perspective, it is quickly becoming too late for the crops in many areas to be threatened. This is not to suggest southern Brazil and Argentina are home free, but that the northern areas in Brazil are already engaged in harvest activities. On the other hand the new crop production cycle for the northern hemisphere has only just begun. Most of the global supply of corn, soybeans, and wheat are in the northern hemisphere.

We continue to offer pricing recommendations based on the belief the grains and oilseed markets remain in a lower price environment. This does not preclude price rallies or short term price declines as the market measures, quantifies, and verifies the current longer term projections of supply and demand. The track to lower or higher prices longer term will likely be something other than a straight line. At this point we view price rallies as an opportunity to price remaining old crop inventories as well as additional projected new crop inventories in an attempt to stay ahead of the curve if current new crop SA and northern hemisphere production projections are realized. It is likely this recommendations bias will generally remain in place until a concern (a production threat) about new crop production potential is presented.

Best Regards – The Recommendations Group of Marketing Partners Advisory
About Marketing Partners Advisory
Doug Roose Becca Bunton
ADM - Benson Quinn
BQCI Morning Comments
1/22/2015 8:15:05 AM

1/23/2015 4:24:06 PM
Corn traded both sides of unchanged on the overnight
with a slightly lower feel into the pause. The volume was
light and the range was a tight 2 ½ cents wide. The weekly
sales report for the week of 1/16 had corn sales beating
expectations by over double the high side estimate. The
2,185,000 total MMT effort stands as the largest w...

1/23/2015 3:59:01 PM
It was a choppy session today for the beans with the
market settling at fresh lows for the move. The session lacked
much conviction with the day trade bouncing back and forth from
weaker to unchanged with each passing of the hour hand on the
clock. Export sales were bearish at marketing year low of 14,100
MT for old crop but this is what...

Hard Red Spring Wheat
1/23/2015 3:35:08 PM
US wheat futures were weaker overnight with help
from a generally negative feel towards wheat and strength
in the US dollar. The hard wheat markets posted new
lows for the move, but didn’t attract the amount of buying
one might expect. A very good week of corn exports and
respectable weekly wheat sales benefited the long
position h...

About ADM - Benson Quinn
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01/25/15 02:15 PM GMT





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