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ADMIS Daily Grain Commentary
ADMIS Market View & Video
7/28/2014 8:28:22 AM
SQ is up. CZ is up. WZ is dwn. US stocks, Dollar & Crude are lower. Gold, Cattle & hogs are up. Key US economic news this week could impact markets.
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Marketing Partners Advisory
M.P.A 7/21/14 Position Updates and Conf Call Recap
7/22/2014 7:43:34 AM
Marketing Partners Advisory
Position Updates
July 21, 2014

All price recommendations below are futures price references (not cash equivalent)

2014-crop – We are 40% sold at Chicago December 2014 $5.18
Recommendation: sell 20% at Chicago December 2014 $4.50
Recommendation: sell 10% at Chicago December 2014 $4.65
2015-crop – We are 5% sold at Chicago December 2015 at $5.02

2014-crop – We are 60% sold at Chicago November 2014 $12.25
Recommendation: sell 10% at Chicago November 2014 $12.00
2015-crop – We are 5% sold at Chicago November 2015 $12.03
Recommendation: sell 5% at Chicago November 2015 $ 12.07

SRW – We are 50% sold at Chicago Sept 2014 $7.16
Recommendation: sell 20% at Chicago Sept 2014 $6.00
HRW – We are 75% sold at Kansas City Sept 2014 $7.73
Recommendation: sell 10% at Kansas City Sept 2014 $7.50
HRS - We are 50% sold at Minneapolis December 2014 at $7.82
Recommendation: sell 10% at Minneapolis December 2014 $7.35

SRW – We are 40% sold at Chicago July 2015 $7.18
HRW – We are 30% sold at Kansas City July 2015 $7.65

Marketing Partners Advisory
Conference Call Recap
July 21, 2014

Another weekend of weather developments which appear to further production potential for northern hemisphere crops in many areas seemed to be the focal point for the grains and oilseed markets on Monday. The markets struggled all day and furthered the discussion of a bearish price trend for grains and oilseeds. Questions are being asked as to what the lows will be as corn and wheat prices are already viewed as very cheap very early. While the soybean market may not be as close to the USDA’s projection for crop year lows, it too continues to feel heavy. We continue to hear comments of disbelief from some producers as they are trying to come to grips with current prices and the potential for even lower prices in the future.

Is the lower price environment for grains and oilseeds stimulating demand and/or demand pricing? This is a question we continue to get. We believe the answer is yes on both counts. But this may not suggest the demand increase and the current amount of demand pricing is meaningful enough to counter the expectation of an avalanche of fall harvested northern hemisphere production. There is also a timing issue which should not be overlooked as the spring planted northern hemisphere production/harvest is still generally about a month away, and that is the earliest inventories. There is also the on-going discussion/expectation the new crops are not under stress and production potential may be increasing versus stabilizing.

For many there is now an expectation grains and oilseed markets are headed lower. Producers are hunkering down and planning strategically how to handle the pending harvest while systems of the industry beyond the farm are also gearing up to take on inventories, whether the inventories have been previously sold by the producer or inventories which may come to them in the form of unpriced cash grain contracts/storage. There are times of the year when the logistics of planting and/or the harvest tend to impact the discussion of price and grain marketing in a greater manner than other times. Certainly the anticipation of this year’s fall harvest with projections of record inventory fall into this consideration.

Perhaps of noticeable concern for those trying to project price lows for grains and oilseeds is the issue of the funds currently not being meaningfully short grains and oilseed futures. There is a short in wheat, but perhaps not of meaningful consideration. In corn and soybeans there is evidence to suggest the funds remain long. For anyone who believes there is a proven linkage between fund activity/direction position movement in the futures markets and grains and oilseed prices, this issue is a glaring concern.

There is some talk of the potential negative impact of a first frost event in the US given the late planting dates for spring planted crops in northern growing areas. We are not willing to discount this issue, but the markets may be much better suited to deal with any negative impact should it take place, given historically large new crop inventory base line currently being used in supply and demand discussions. We have all seen the negative impact of a harmful fall frost in the past. Traditionally this development has not been a game changer for the overall discussion of price but rather becomes a quality issue for the systems of the industry to work through.

The two week weather forecast continues to suggest favorable growing conditions for most areas of northern hemisphere production. As a result the market will likely enter the early portion of August will lingering expectations the USDA August reports will amp up new crop production projections. We believe some of this expectation is already built into current prices and price action.

Best Regards – The Recommendations Group of Marketing Partners Advisory

About Marketing Partners Advisory
Doug Roose
ADM - Benson Quinn
BQCI Morning Comments
7/25/2014 8:08:40 AM

7/28/2014 3:29:29 PM
US corn futures spent the session working back to the
overnight highs before triggering additional short covering
on new highs late in the session. The oversold nature of the
corn market offered support, while sharply higher trade in
soybeans was a supportive factor. Today’s price action in
corn indicates a respect for the drier p...

7/25/2014 3:19:04 PM
Rains falling on the radar today over northwestern
Midwest and rolling across eastern IA and northern half IL
weighed on the market as rains set up moisture base ahead of next
week’s drier forecast. Strong demand coming from export market
and some risk as beans head into key pod setting and filling in
August had market recovering off of ...

Hard Red Spring Wheat
7/28/2014 3:29:16 PM
Wheat futures posted mixed, but generally weaker trade with
the Chicago market showing a little fight. The hard wheat contracts
struggled to gain much traction amid reports of good harvest
progress in SD and favorable views towards spring wheat production.
Efforts to build on Friday’s strong gains failed during the overnight
hours. ...

About ADM - Benson Quinn
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07/28/14 10:30 PM GMT





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