SN finished up only 5c near 14.99. CN closed up 3c near 6.62. WN closed up 14c near 7.03. Talk of weak commodity markets and increase farmer selling offered resistance. Crude, Copper and Livestock were down, while Gold & Silver were up today.

Discussion items from the weekly conference call of the recommendations group of Marketing Partners Advisory include the following.

1. Technically the wheat markets are showing signs of being oversold. Conversely the old crop months in soybeans are noticeably overbought. The corn futures market is in a rather neutral position but does have a remaining price gap above the market from late March/early April.
2. Weather has generally been supportive of northern hemisphere planting progress. We will note the continuing dryness in the Volga Valley. In the US the weekly planting progress reports confirmed rapid advancement and germination. We also see anecdotal evidence germination rates are very good across the US.
3. There is little doubt the market is now engaged in a price discovery process largely linked to weather developments and the impact they will have on yield potential rather than planting progress. Some refer to this as the silly season as the market participants chase weather forecasts. We will remind clients past weather is equally important to yield considerations as is future weather. Good weather in the past allows the crop to withstand future stress easier and bad weather in the past makes it easier for the crop to become stressed as the growing season moves forward.
4. We continue to see projections of the lingering negative impact historically large South American soybean inventories will have on US soybean demand into the US new crop year.
5. The earliest US wheat harvest has begun as reports of SRW new crop harvest are beginning to surface.
6. Although the market has been abuzz over the spring rain events and late spring in the US and its impact on planting progress, we do not want to overlook the positive impact this has provided as well. Most areas of the US which needed moisture to recover from last summer’s drought have recovered in a meaningful manner with rain and/or snow events since January. We believe there is evidence of this in the positive germination rates for spring planted crops.
7. The current forecast continues to project generally weekly rain events for many of the US growing areas for the next few weeks. We view this as good news relative to production potential now that much of the later planting concerns may be behind the market.
8. We fully realize a significant number of US producers engage the utilization of revenue based crop insurance as their primary marketing/revenue/risk management alternative for much of the US growing season. However we do not want clients to overlook the fact that grain inventories still need to be marketed post settlement of crop insurance issues. This is why the longer term trend in the market is so important and producers should not become complacent with grain marketing issues even though the revenue based crop insurance issue provides some growing season revenue protection.


Best Regards – The Recommendations Group of Marketing Partners Advisory

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