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08/26/14 - 09/05/14
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Market Intelligence
ADMIS Daily Grain Commentary
ADMIS AM Market View & Video
8/29/2014 9:02:28 AM
Mixed/ higher grains. US dollar is mixed. Most commodities are higher. All eyes on Ukraine and EU monetary policy. CME closed Mon for Labor Day holiday.

IGC is expected to estimate World crops sizes today. USDA Sep 11. Trade expects bigger US corn crop, bigger US soybean crop and bigger Russia wheat crop. Australia wheat crop could be a little lower. Still this is the first year ever where corn, wheat and soybean supplies are all record high in the same year.
About ADMIS Daily Grain Commentary
Marketing Partners Advisory
M.P.A 8/25/14 Recommendations and Conf Call Recap
8/26/2014 4:01:29 PM
Marketing Partners Advisory
Position Update and Conference Call Recap
August 25, 2014

All price recommendations below are futures price references (not cash equivalent)

2014-crop – We are 40% sold at Chicago December 2014 $5.18
Recommendation: sell 20% at Chicago December 2014 $4.50
Recommendation: sell 10% at Chicago December 2014 $4.65
2015-crop – We are 5% sold at Chicago December 2015 at $5.02

2014-crop – We are 60% sold at Chicago November 2014 $12.25
Recommendation: sell 10% at Chicago November 2014 $12.00
2015-crop – We are 5% sold at Chicago November 2015 $12.03
Recommendation: sell 5% at Chicago November 2015 $ 12.07

SRW – We are 60% sold at Chicago Sept 2014 $6.88
Recommendation: sell 20% at Chicago Sept 2014 $5.75 (New)
Recommendation: sell 20% at Chicago Sept 2014 $6.00

HRW – We are 85% sold at Kansas City Sept 2014 $7.59
Recommendation: sell 10% at Kansas City Sept 2014 $7.50
HRS - We are 50% sold at Minneapolis December 2014 at $7.82
Recommendation: sell 10% at Minneapolis December 2014 $7.35

SRW – We are 40% sold at Chicago July 2015 $7.18
HRW – We are 30% sold at Kansas City July 2015 $7.65

Marketing Partners Advisory
Conference Call Recap
August 25, 2014

Comments and discussion items from the weekly conference call of the recommendations group of Marketing Partners Advisory include the following –

1. Fireworks are still being played out in the old crop soybean market as some demand points reach to find inventories for the remainder of the crop year. This will disappear at some point. All those who have traded this type of old crop tightness scenario know when the market discovers it has enough/one bushel too much, the market premium will go poof and the next stop will be new crop values. We believe this issue has been supportive of the old crop futures market from a spread consideration as well as supportive of the fund length which remains in the meal and oil futures market.
2. At this point we do not see a weather forecast which prompts concern of an early frost catching the late season development of US spring planted crops.
3. We continue to see evidence of grain handling locations immediately beyond the farm selling remaining old crop corn inventories clearing space for the new crop harvest and working to capture the old crop basis market premiums. This is a very traditional consideration especially when a large new crop is anticipated and when the market’s price structure will support an old crop basis market premium. We believe much of the remaining inventory represents delayed pricing ownership which producers to this point have been reluctant to price.
4. Ukraine, ISIS, Argentina, Hamas/Israel – Wild cards
5. Fund futures market length remain in meal, oil, and corn
6. Warm temperatures – Many areas in the US are experiencing the first real tranche of warm weather over the past week. Reports of temps in the 90 degree plus area have not been uncommon. However for many of these areas we do not sense the warmer temps are doing meaningful damage to late season development of spring planted crops. Having said this there are reports in portions of the Delta and western soybean growing areas of dry land late beans experiencing stress.
7. There remains evidence of strong new crop demand for the anticipated harvest inventories of corn and soybeans. Producer selling interest remains benign. Freight considerations in many areas remain problematic. Historically large new crop year inventories are still anticipated. The funds are not meaningfully short futures. Most (but not all) grains and oilseed new crop cash markets are presenting a carrying charge price structure. These are some of the primary pieces of the puzzle as one considers the task of price (basis and futures) in the coming weeks and months.

Best Regards – The Recommendations Group of Marketing Partners Advisory

About Marketing Partners Advisory
Doug Roose
ADM - Benson Quinn
BQCI Morning Comments
8/29/2014 8:11:41 AM

8/29/2014 2:57:17 PM

8/29/2014 2:57:26 PM

Hard Red Spring Wheat
8/29/2014 2:57:22 PM

About ADM - Benson Quinn
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09/01/14 11:25 PM GMT

* Futures composite price shown, delayed at least 10 minutes.
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