Market Intelligence
ADMIS Daily Grain Commentary
ADMIS AM Market View & Video
12/19/2014 8:59:26 AM
Lower grain trade. US stocks are higher. Post US FOMC “Santa Claus” rally continues. US dollar is mixed to higher. Crude is higher. Gold is higher. Meats are higher.
About ADMIS Daily Grain Commentary
Marketing Partners Advisory
M.P.A. 12/17/14 Position Update and Conference Cal
12/17/2014 8:25:50 AM
Marketing Partners Advisory
Position Update and Conference Call Recap
December 17, 2014

2014-crop – We are 70% sold at Chicago March 2015 $4.60
Recommendation: sell 10% at Chicago March 2015 $4.22 *New
2015-crop – We are 25% sold at Chicago December 2015 at $4.34

2014-crop – We are 85% sold at Chicago January 2015 $11.66
Recommendation: Sell 10% at January 2015 at $11.00

2015-crop – We are 30% sold at Chicago November 2015 $10.27
Recommendation: Sell 5% at November 2015 at $11.00 *New

SRW – We are 70% sold at Chicago March 2015 $6.79
Recommendation: sell 10% at Chicago March 2015 $6.25 (filled on 12/16/14)
HRW – We are 95% sold at Kansas City March 2015 $7.47
Recommendation: sell 5% at Kansas City March 2015 $7.00
HRS - We are 80% sold at Minneapolis March 2015 at $7.22
Recommendation: sell 10% at Minneapolis March 2015 $6.49 (filled on 12/16/14)
Recommendation: sell 10% at Minneapolis March 2015 $6.63

SRW – We are 50% sold at Chicago July 2015 $6.99
Recommendation: sell 10% at Chicago July 2015 $6.25 (filled on 12/16/14)
HRW – We are 30% sold at Kansas City July 2015 $7.65
Recommendation: sell 10% at Kansas City July 2015 $7.00
Marketing Partners Advisory
Conference Call Recap
December 17, 2014

1. We continue to believe weather developments in South America remain favorable for new crop production potential. Once again last week the USDA projected historically large production of new crop soybeans and corn. We are also now becoming more comfortable new crop inventories for export will not be delayed in a meaningful manner as a result of growing season weather and/or planting delays.
2. The funds are now long corn, soybean, and wheat futures. All have experienced an increase of approximately 15-20 thousand futures only contracts in the most recent CFTC reporting period.
3. Recent rain events in US SRW and HRW growing areas has been beneficial for new crop development and improving moisture reserves for the spring of 2015. The recent rains may be meaningfully beneficial as they signal the early spring discussion of winter wheat new crop production potential may lack a dryness consideration as a bullish price catalyst.
4. Last week’s USDA WASDE reports offered very little new information for the current crop year global and domestic balance sheets. Perhaps of more interest will be the January data as already there are questions as to what the USDA will do relative to planted acreage linked to the FSA acreage data from earlier in 2014. There is some speculation the USDA may find cause to lower US planted acreage for corn and soybeans and in doing so adjust production numbers to reflect the acreage adjustments. We also anticipate the USDA stocks data will offer some clarity as to current crop year demand/off take for the domestic markets.
5. The corn market seems to already be factoring in the early discussion of US planted acres for the spring of 2015. There is some sentiment the past weeks’ fund buying in corn futures may have some linkage to this consideration. At this point it seems to be generally anticipated the US will experience a reduction in corn planted acreage in 2015.
6. There still seems to be some discussion as to the status of Black Sea wheat exports for the balance of the crop year. We do not have a sense as to whether Russia’s wheat exports will simply slow or whether they will be suspended. One agreement we do have is seasonally wheat exports from this area tend to slow from this point on in the crop year.
7. Technically the corn, wheat, and soybean markets have now retraced approximately 50% of the price decline which took place from May through the end of September 2014. The rally has prompted selling of corn, soybeans, and wheat in the past month as US producers position for yearend expenses/cash flow needs.
8. There remains much discussion of the sharp price decline in crude oil market. We understand the pertinence of the discussion and market chatter which suggests prices will continue to decline, but will also suggest the same was true when the grains and oilseed markets were collapsing in late September. At that point many found reason to expect lower prices in the coming months only to realize demand and production respond to lower prices and the price action allowed the grains and oilseed markets to get over sold technically. There is also a history which suggests many come to the discussion late when these types of mega price adjustments take place. We will often times step back from the headlines and euphoria of the discussion fearing when the issue becomes general news there is a chance the news is a lagging confirmation of what has been developing for a period of time. To that end we will note the crude oil futures market is grossly over sold with the slow stochastic %K and %D in low single digits.

Best Regards – The Recommendations Group of Marketing Partners Advisory
About Marketing Partners Advisory
Doug Roose Becca Bunton
ADM - Benson Quinn
BQCI Morning Comments
12/19/2014 3:31:20 PM

12/19/2014 3:30:36 PM
Another orderly session in US corn futures. The
corn market was lower through much of the session
before recovering in the close. While corn took direction
from wheat and soybeans, it couldn’t gain much traction
in either direction. Volume remains light. Funds were
estimated sellers of 2,000 to 3,000 corn c0ntracts, which

12/19/2014 3:39:51 PM
Beans traded lower all session and closed with
modest losses in a consolidative range session. Market
makers have either stepped to sidelines ahead of the holiday
or already out of office for the Christmas break. And that left
us with a featureless session. The daily trading range was a
modest 13-cents with traders that are still around ...

Hard Red Spring Wheat
12/19/2014 3:30:41 PM
Wheat futures were down hard overnight as the short
covering rally has either abated or at least took a breather.
There were signs yesterday that this was the case. The actual
mechanics of today’s trade are much more convincing.
Despite various comments out of Russian related export
curbs/raising prices to buy intervention wheat and...

About ADM - Benson Quinn
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