Market Intelligence
ADMIS Daily Grain Commentary
ADMIS AM Market View
3/2/2015 8:36:25 AM
Mixed grain trade. US dollar & Crude are lower. There is talk that the Brazil truckers strike may soon be over. Brazil soybean harvest is near 28 pct done and below ave. Some est harvest could advance to near 40-45 pct by the weekend.

About ADMIS Daily Grain Commentary
Marketing Partners Advisory
M.P.A. 2/17/15 Position Update and Conference Call
2/19/2015 6:42:23 PM
Marketing Partners Advisory
Position Updated and Recommendations
February 17, 2015

2014-crop – We are 70% sold at Chicago March 2015 $4.60
Recommendation: sell 10% at Chicago March 2015 $4.22
2015-crop – We are 25% sold at Chicago December 2015 at $4.34
Recommendation: sell 10% at Chicago December 2015 $4.50

2014-crop – We are 85% sold at Chicago March 2015 $11.66
Recommendation: Sell 5% at March 2015 at $10.30 *New*
Recommendation: Sell 10% at March 2015 at $11.00

2015-crop – We are 30% sold at Chicago November 2015 $10.27
Recommendation: Sell 5% at November 2015 at $11.00

SRW – We are 70% sold at Chicago March 2015 $6.79
Recommendation: sell 10% at Chicago March 2015 $5.90
Recommendation: sell 10% at Chicago March 2015 $6.80
HRW – We are 100% sold at Kansas City March 2015 $7.45
HRS - We are 90% sold at Minneapolis March 2015 at $7.16
Recommendation: sell 10% at Minneapolis March 2015 $6.30

SRW – We are 50% sold at Chicago July 2015 $6.99
Recommendation: sell 10% at Chicago July 2015 $6.80
HRW – We are 40% sold at Kansas City July 2015 $7.49
HRS – We are 0% sold at Minneapolis December 2015
Recommendation: sell 10% at Minneapolis December 2015 $7.00

Marketing Partners Advisory
Conference Call Recap
February 17, 2015

The following is a review of comments and discussion items from the weekly conference call of the recommendations group of Marketing Partners Advisory –

1. We continue to see a lack of producer selling interest at current prices at this time as a general consideration. This development is not limited to the US as reports suggest producer sales of new crop inventories in SA (in the somewhat early stages of what may be another record soybean harvest) also remain sluggish.
2. US demand for both export and domestic usage soybean inventories remains strong as evidenced by both export shipment data and monthly crush rates. We do have some concerns the current strong pace of usage/demand will taper in a noticeable manner in late March early April as SA new crop soybean exports increase.
3. As the markets approach the spring of 2015 for the northern hemisphere the grains and oilseed markets are once again getting more focused on spring and longer term weather forecasts. To this point there are a number of longer term forecasts which suggest portions of the US and Canada may be in the queue for a drier bias later in the growing cycle. Having stated this we will also remind clients the best weather people in this industry will suggest longer term weather forecasts are dicey at best. Perhaps of more concern in the short term is the issue of portions of China remaining dry since last summer. The areas of current dryness include corn, soybean, and wheat production in the North China Plain and NE China. We should also note there are some rain events potentially evolving in the next 10 days for some of the drier areas, however the amounts do not appear to be significant enough to reverse the concern of lingering moisture shortage.
4. Later this week the USDA will hold the annual outlook conference. The forecasts presented in this conference will likely garner much attention as they will be the first USDA baseline considerations for new crop 2015 supply and demand.

Additional discussion items –

We continue to see rain events in areas of Brazil which are slowing the harvest activity. We believe this is helping to support the soybean futures market in the short term.

The funds remain short the wheat futures market (collective consideration) and soybean futures. While the funds remain long corn futures the position does not appear to be problematically long. The current fund positions in corn, wheat, and soybeans are viewed as being a bit supportive to the futures markets in the short term as the northern hemisphere is on the cusp of the season of higher market volatility and velocity.

We do not interpret the current new crop corn, wheat, and soybean futures prices as being reflective of markets which represent a risk premium linked to new crop production uncertainty.

As we travel about and participate in various producer meetings in the past six weeks we continue to hear of producer concern relative to sign up in the US farm program. The choices which are being offered do not seem to be greeted with enthusiasm, but rather seem to be boiling down to choosing the lesser of two questionable alternatives. The real problem may be the current farm bill was designed to be in place in a much different overall price environment for grains and oilseeds versus what currently exists.

Technically the futures markets in corn, wheat, and soybeans do not appear to be poised for a meaningful price move lower in the short term. The markets are not over bought and all remain above some of the most widely used shorter term price moving averages. This is not suggesting the longer term supply and demand issues which suggest ample global supplies moving forward are changing, but rather to suggest short term the markets may be lacking bearish price momentum. This is not unusual in any market as the road to currently anticipated longer term fundamental supply and demand price considerations is rarely straight.

Best Regards – The Recommendations Group of Marketing Partners Advisory

About Marketing Partners Advisory
Doug Roose Becca Bunton
ADM - Benson Quinn
BQCI Morning Comments
3/2/2015 8:22:47 AM

2/27/2015 3:59:33 PM
The overnight session started out with a firmer tone
and drifted higher into the morning break. A rally in beans
and wheat supported corn on the day. There was a small
amount of daily corn export business reported on the
morning wires which added to the bullish tone. The Saudi’s
reportedly purchased 2 cargos of US origin corn and Ch...

2/27/2015 3:59:40 PM
US soybeans posted another positive session
featuring short covering, fresh supportive technical inputs
and plenty of volatility. While the trucker strike in Brazil is
offering a base of support, new highs for the move during
the overnight session should be given credit for today’s
support. Short position holders are at times being for...

Hard Red Spring Wheat
2/27/2015 3:59:37 PM
Wheat steadily gained momentum throughout the
session, spending much of the day in double digits higher
territory. MWK closed +9 ¾, with KWK +7 and WK +12
½. The main feature was reaction to first notice day for
the March contracts, as well as technical reaction to
yesterday’s chart reversal.
The lack of follow through after Thursda...

About ADM - Benson Quinn
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