Market Intelligence
ADMIS Daily Grain Commentary
ADMIS Market View & AM Video
1/28/2015 9:05:20 AM
Lower grain calls. US Midwest weather outlook calls for below normal rains and temps. SA weather looks favorable for crops.

US stocks, Dollar are higher. Crude is lower. Metals are mixed with copper higher.


About ADMIS Daily Grain Commentary
Marketing Partners Advisory
M.P.A. 1/26/15 Position Update and Conference Call
1/27/2015 7:42:26 PM
Marketing Partners Advisory
Position Updated and Recommendations
January 26, 2015

CORN:
2014-crop – We are 70% sold at Chicago March 2015 $4.60
Recommendation: sell 10% at Chicago March 2015 $4.22
2015-crop – We are 25% sold at Chicago December 2015 at $4.34
Recommendation: sell 10% at Chicago December 2015 $4.50

SOYBEANS:
2014-crop – We are 85% sold at Chicago March 2015 $11.66
Recommendation: Sell 15% at March 2015 at $11.00

2015-crop – We are 30% sold at Chicago November 2015 $10.27
Recommendation: Sell 5% at November 2015 at $11.00

WHEAT:
2014-crop
SRW – We are 70% sold at Chicago March 2015 $6.79
Recommendation: sell 10% at Chicago March 2015 $5.90
Recommendation: sell 10% at Chicago March 2015 $6.80
HRW – We are 100% sold at Kansas City March 2015 $7.45
HRS - We are 90% sold at Minneapolis March 2015 at $7.16
Recommendation: sell 10% at Minneapolis March 2015 $6.30

2015-crop
SRW – We are 50% sold at Chicago July 2015 $6.99
Recommendation: sell 10% at Chicago July 2015 $6.80
HRW – We are 40% sold at Kansas City July 2015 $7.49
HRS – We are 0% sold at Minneapolis December 2015
Recommendation: sell 10% at Minneapolis December 2015 $7.00

________________________________________
Marketing Partners Advisory
Conference Call Recap
January 26, 2015

Comments and discussion items from the weekly conference call of the recommendations group of Marketing Partners Advisory include the following –

1. The most recent CFTC commitment of traders data continues to affirm fund selling in the futures markets this past week. The wheat and soybean futures markets are now generally even to modestly short by the funds. The data suggests the funds remain long corn futures, but that position has declined in recent weeks. We continue to believe some of the length in the corn futures market is linked to the on-going discussion of reduced planted corn acreage in the US for the upcoming production cycle/2015 crop year.
2. There seems to now be an acceptance US planted acreage for corn will be lower this spring versus a year ago. Much of the discussion seems to have centered on a planted acreage in the area of 88 million acres. We are wrestling with this for a number of reasons. One is the producer likes to plant corn. Quote from one of our group members – “My dad always thought soybeans were a cover crop for corn”. We believe this quote affirms our belief farmers like to plant corn. There is also the cost of production component to this discussion. For those farmers who own much of the land they farm, costs for corn production may be much lower than for those farmers who rent much of the land they farm. Thus current new crop corn values may still support profitability. There is also the issue of crop rotation. Farmers generally still believe in the value of this farming practice. All of this is not to suggest corn acres will not decline, but rather to maybe suggest current expectations may be a bit too low. So might an acreage adjustment of 1-2 million acres versus current expectations make a difference in the grand scheme of things? For every 1 million acres it is likely the new crop supply discussion will be impacted 150-175 million bushels. While this may impact the supply discussion for the new crop year, the bigger impact to new crop supplies will be more likely linked to yield.
3. Big headline issues from last week – The ECB announced a QE program - The government in Yemen was taken over by rebels - The Swiss announced a move away from the Euro - Crude oil futures seem to have stabilized - The rally in the US dollar is showing signs of topping - More fighting in eastern Ukraine - The developments in the Greek elections – A general we now don’t care or trust what this guy says public response to the President’s State of the Union speech. It was a big week in news headlines and most markets seem to have worked through these headlines rather seamlessly.
4. How does one currently define futures market price volatility? Look at the cattle futures markets
5. We continue to see evidence weather developments in Brazil, Argentina, and Paraguay and the current forecast remain supportive of new crop production potential. We also believe this sentiment is applicable to northern hemisphere winter wheat production area weather developments.
6. Producer reluctance to market/price remaining old crop and projected new crop inventories globally seems to exist in the current price environment. We find this to be a bit of a concern for the global soybean market in the face of what currently looks to be a record soybean harvest in South America. Like most major grains and oilseed production areas, there is typically a movement of grain induced by the surge of new crop supplies as the harvest is realized and storage capacity considerations prompt inventories into the systems of the industry at the farm and beyond. The timing is right for this issue to become an obstacle for the soybean futures market.


Best Regards – The Recommendations Group of Marketing Partners Advisory
About Marketing Partners Advisory
Doug Roose Becca Bunton
ADM - Benson Quinn
BQCI Morning Comments
1/28/2015 8:27:13 AM
...

Corn
1/28/2015 3:53:08 PM
Grains opened on the overnight mixed and sold off
for the balance of the session. Volume was light
overnight and again traded a tight range of 2 cents into
the morning pause. Bearish news was released late
Tuesday following the trade session. The EPA released a
confirmation that authorized Argentine biodiesel
imports to be eligib...

Oilseeds
1/28/2015 3:31:22 PM
News that the EPA made Argentina soyoil imports
eligible for biodiesel RINs broke down not only the CBOT
soyoil market but weighed heavily on the CBOT soybeans
futures market as well. Soyoil tumbled to its lowest levels since
March of 2009 as cheaper Argentina soyoil competes against
domestic supplies. Beans made a new low for the move o...

Hard Red Spring Wheat
1/28/2015 2:52:22 PM
US wheat futures followed yesterday’s weak close
with fresh new lows overnight and a sharp sell off during
the day session. While the fundamental side of the
market isn’t offering support, I would give the technical
weakness the most credit for the lower trade of the last
couple of sessions. New lows for the move tend to trigger
ad...

About ADM - Benson Quinn
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Futures
SOYBEANS
Last:
Change:
High:
Low:
974'0
3'6
976'4
967'2

WHEAT
Last:
Change:
High:
Low:
503'0
-2'2
506'6
500'6

CORN
Last:
Change:
High:
Low:
371'0
-2'2
373'4
369'4

SOYBEAN MEAL
Last:
Change:
High:
Low:
337.90
0.50
340.10
336.10

* Futures composite price shown, delayed at least 10 minutes.
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