Market Intelligence
ADMIS Daily Grain Commentary
ADMIS AM Market View & Video
9/19/2014 8:35:31 AM
Grains are lower. Could be active US harvest wkend. US domestic corn & soybean basis levels are softer. Bigger US 2014 corn and soybean supplies should continue to weigh on prices. US farmland values dropped for 10th month in Sep. Lowest since Mar 2009. US Dollar is higher. Most commodities mixed/lower. Scottish voted no. Euro lower. World stocks higher.

About ADMIS Daily Grain Commentary
Marketing Partners Advisory
M.P.A 9/15/14 Recommendations and Conf Call Recap
9/16/2014 8:50:37 AM
2014-crop – We are 40% sold at Chicago December 2014 $5.18
Recommendation: sell 5% at Chicago March 2015 $3.80
Recommendation: sell 20% at Chicago December 2014 $4.50
Recommendation: sell 10% at Chicago December 2014 $4.65
2015-crop – We are 5% sold at Chicago December 2015 at $5.02

2014-crop – We are 60% sold at Chicago November 2014 $12.25
Recommendation: sell 5% at Chicago March 2015 $10.25
Recommendation: sell 10% at Chicago November 2014 $12.00

2015-crop – We are 5% sold at Chicago November 2015 $12.03
Recommendation: sell 5% at Chicago November 2015 $ 12.07

SRW – We are 60% sold at Chicago Sept 2014 $6.88
Recommendation: sell 20% at Chicago Sept 2014 $5.75
Recommendation: sell 20% at Chicago Sept 2014 $6.00
HRW – We are 85% sold at Kansas City Sept 2014 $7.59
Recommendation: sell 10% at Kansas City Sept 2014 $7.50
HRS - We are 50% sold at Minneapolis December 2014 at $7.82
Recommendation: sell 10% at Minneapolis December 2014 $7.35

SRW – We are 40% sold at Chicago July 2015 $7.18
Recommendation: sell 10% at Chicago July 2015 $6.25
HRW – We are 30% sold at Kansas City July 2015 $7.65
Recommendation: sell 10% at Minneapolis December 2015 $7.00
Marketing Partners Advisory
Conference Call Recap
September 15, 2014

Harvest is now taking place in most northern hemisphere production areas. Reports of yields for corn, soybeans, and wheat remain generally supportive of the historically large global and domestic production data announced last week by the USDA. Fall weather has also generally been supportive of new crop production with a few exceptions as a result of the cooler and wetter conditions which have been in place most of the growing season. We continue to hear of some minor harvest delays for spring planted crops and additional reports of quality issues for northern hemisphere wheat. However overall yield reports tend to confirm the expectations of very good yields and in some instances astounding yields.

Additional comments from the weekly conference call of the recommendations group of Marketing Partners Advisory include the following –

1. Some wet weather this week in the US may delay fall harvest activities. This may help extend some of the spot premiums being paid for quick shipment. However we expect these premiums will soon evaporate and the entire system will move to new crop pricing values.
2. The wetter fall weather pattern continues to be supportive of early growing season considerations globally for fall planted crops.
3. Later this week there will be some data released from the FSA in reference to US planted acreage from the spring of 2014. We are not sure how to anticipate the data nor are we comfortable assuming how and if the data will soon be built into the USDA’s 2014/15 crop year balance sheets. We consider the data to be low on the significance scale for grains and oilseed prices as the bigger price picture issue now may be the yield consideration of fall harvested crops.
4. The frost event last week did not meaningfully impact production considerations for the US or Canada.
5. Interestingly we continue to see producer selling interest in corn in some of what are traditionally considered to be SW US Corn Belt growing areas. To this point this selling interest does not appear to be consistent with what we are seeing in most corn production areas. In general the US producers seem intent on not finalizing pricing on new crop fall harvested inventories.
6. At this point we do not sense there are early season weather considerations in South America which threaten the early corn, wheat, or soybean new crop production potential.
7. We continue to see and hear reports of US producer focus on cost of production issues for the upcoming 2015 production cycle. At this point we do not sense there is a widespread movement to cut back on production inputs but rather to perhaps tweak the planted acreage crop mix as a way to reduce the investment risk of 2015 production. This is only the beginning of this story as the fall harvest is of more immediate concern. Perhaps if seed costs and/or agronomic support costs begin to decline it may change the focus of producer actions to address the lower price environment for grains and oilseeds.

Best Regards – The Recommendations Group of Marketing Partners Advisory
About Marketing Partners Advisory
Doug Roose Becca Bunton
ADM - Benson Quinn
BQCI Morning Comments
9/19/2014 8:19:40 AM

9/19/2014 3:50:46 PM
Unlike earlier in the week the corn market was able to test
and break through the prior lows early in today’s session. I am
not sure what the difference was today as the narrative behind
the market hasn’t changed much. Regardless, the reprieve from
the selling outweighing the bids didn’t last long. The two
somewhat fresh inputs in ...

9/19/2014 4:09:56 PM
Beans tumbled to new 4-year contract lows as advancing
harvest and record setting yield reports swamped the trade. A
drier and warmer weekend forecast as well as warmer outlook into
the end of September pressured the session from the get go as
harvest is expected to increase exponentially over the next week. A
strongly weakening spot cas...

Hard Red Spring Wheat
9/19/2014 3:50:53 PM
Wheat futures weakened to new lows for the move
overnight and faced another round of selling early in the
session. The weaker tone in US wheat futures is being
complemented by another new low in EU milling wheat
futures, which actually correlate better with feed wheat values
due to lack of milling specs associated with the contract. ...

About ADM - Benson Quinn
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