Market Intelligence
ADMIS Daily Grain Commentary
ADMIS AM Market View & Video
10/31/2014 9:35:51 AM
Mixed grain trade. US stocks are higher. Dollar is higher. Crude is lower. Japan stocks soaring on new economic policy. Russia raises Bank rate. Agrees to Nat Gas deal with Ukraine and EU.
About ADMIS Daily Grain Commentary
Marketing Partners Advisory
M.P.A 10/20/14 Position Update and Conf Call Recap
10/21/2014 8:10:21 AM
Marketing Partners Advisory
Recommendation Triggered
October 20, 2014

All price recommendations below are futures price references (not cash equivalent)


CORN:
2014-crop – We are 40% sold at Chicago December 2014 $5.18
Recommendation: sell 5% at Chicago March 2015 $3.80
2015-crop – We are 5% sold at Chicago December 2015 at $5.02
Recommendation: sell 10% at Chicago Dec 2015 $4.00 *New*

SOYBEANS:
2014-crop – We are 60% sold at Chicago November 2014 $12.25
Recommendation: sell 10% at Chicago November 2014 $9.76
Recommendation: sell 5% at Chicago March 2015 $10.25

2015-crop – We are 25% sold at Chicago November 2015 $10.25


WHEAT:
2014-crop
SRW – We are 60% sold at Chicago Dec 2014 $6.88
HRW – We are 85% sold at Kansas City Sept 2014 $7.59
HRS - We are 50% sold at Minneapolis December 2014 at $7.82

2015-crop
SRW – We are 40% sold at Chicago July 2015 $7.18
Recommendation: sell 10% at Chicago July 2015 $6.25
HRW – We are 30% sold at Kansas City July 2015 $7.65
Recommendation: sell 10% at Minneapolis December 2015 $7.00
________________________________________
Marketing Partners Advisory
Conference Call Recap
October 20, 2014

The following are comments and discussion items from the weekly conference call of the recommendations group of Marketing Partners Advisory.

1. Finally the weather forecast appears to include an open window of favorable harvest weather.
2. We continue to see evidence US HRW and SRW planted acreage will decline this fall.
3. As the harvest is progressing we continue to believe producer interest in finalizing pricing/marketing for this fall’s harvest is lackluster.
4. The was clear evidence early last week of producer selling interest in new crop 2015 corn and soybeans as the past couple of week’s price rally reached a crescendo.
5. We continue to see generally favorable weather developments for SA new crop production.
6. We do not believe the grains and oilseed markets have reached escape velocity from the price lows as a result of the past couple of week’s price rally in the futures markets.
7. We continue to see some premiums being paid for quick shipment new crop inventories but anticipate these premiums may come under some pressure this week given the current favorable harvest weather forecast.
________________________________________

1. Finally the weather forecast appears to include an open window of favorable harvest weather. This forecast for this week and into next week currently appears to lack any widespread rain events. Already, Sunday and Monday, harvest activity appears to be picking up across many areas for US corn and soybean production. This week’s weather forecast should allow for some of the southern US corn and soybean production areas to wrap up harvest activities. Much of the Midwest and northern production areas in the US will also likely experience meaningful advances in harvest as a result the current weather forecast.
2. We continue to see evidence US HRW and SRW planted acreage will decline this fall. Although the weather has generally been favorable for planting progress and crop development, the reduction in planted acreage should be noted. We are not suggesting this is a game changer for the wheat markets going forward, but it does make for some interesting discussion as to what crops will be considered as alternatives to the winter wheat in the spring of 2015.
3. As the harvest is progressing we continue to believe producer interest in finalizing pricing/marketing for this fall’s harvest is lackluster. Obviously the current price environment is a consideration prompting disinterest on the producer’s part. We also believe some of the delays in harvest and the focus on the remaining harvest contribute to a lesser degree to the producer’s lack of selling interest. We are not surprised at this development. However it does make for some interesting considerations for the late summer and early fall of 2015 relative to storage issues and what could be a pre-harvest movement of old crop inventories in advance of the harvest should the next production cycle lack a new crop production threat.
4. The was clear evidence early last week of producer selling interest in new crop 2015 corn and soybeans as the past couple of week’s price rally reached a crescendo. It appears there is much producer concern about grains and oilseed prices into the future. We will note there seems to be a general movement afoot by the farm advisory industry to use options based strategies as a response to the lower prices, as a way to delay the finalization of inventory pricing, as a way to avoid DP/price later contract service charges, and as a way address logistics induced pricing of this fall’s harvest inventories. We have some concerns about the strategies being marketed. We also have some questions about what will be the role of the farmer marketing advisory segment of the industry will have going forward.
5. We continue to see generally favorable weather developments for SA new crop production. However dryness still persists (some planting delays) in portions of northern Brazil which may be fostering some concern about delays in early harvest export inventories of new crop soybeans in early 2015. At this point this is a timing issue for the market linked to the availability of new crop exports rather than a concern about SA new crop production projections.
6. We do not believe the grains and oilseed markets have reached escape velocity from the price lows as a result of the past couple of week’s price rally in the futures markets. Unless the rally can extend over the coming week (technical price analysis considerations) there are reasons to anticipate the market may once again challenge recent price lows.
7. We continue to see some premiums being paid for quick shipment new crop inventories but anticipate these premiums may come under some pressure this week given the current favorable harvest weather forecast.


Best Regards – The Recommendations Group of Marketing Partners Advisory
About Marketing Partners Advisory
Doug Roose Becca Bunton
ADM - Benson Quinn
BQCI Morning Comments
10/31/2014 8:10:13 AM
...

Corn
10/31/2014 3:56:39 PM
Corn posted an interesting session as overnight
weakness continued until fund buying stuck it to the shorts
on the close. Corn was quick to respond to early weakness in
the soybeans and kicked and screamed during the recovery
until the end of the month buying in the close. Besides the
action in the close, corn traded an orderly ses...

Oilseeds
10/31/2014 3:56:11 PM
It was a sharply two-sided session but at the end of the
day month-end short covering lifted beans higher to close at new
highs for the move. Fresh news was lacking and a rally in the US
dollar to fresh 4-year highs weighed on the session early but firm
cash meal and soybean markets, zero deliveries in the November
contract and lack of p...

Hard Red Spring Wheat
10/31/2014 3:56:40 PM
US wheat futures used yesterday’s weak trade and
failures at key moving averages early in the session to
extend losses. I expect profit-taking on long positions was
a feature in thinly traded overnight wheat markets.
Overnight weakness in EU milling wheat futures was also
noted. In addition to the wheat markets failing to hold
pot...

About ADM - Benson Quinn
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Futures
SOYBEANS
Last:
Change:
High:
Low:
1046'4
22'2
1052'2
1012'2

WHEAT
Last:
Change:
High:
Low:
532'0
-4'0
539'0
523'0

CORN
Last:
Change:
High:
Low:
376'6
2'6
378'0
368'0

SOYBEAN MEAL
Last:
Change:
High:
Low:
389.00
9.00
394.70
375.40

* Futures composite price shown, delayed at least 10 minutes.
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